The Rays’ season in their very own phrases

Before the season, the numbers weren’t form to the Tampa Bay Rays.

FanGraphs’ Depth Charts projected about 78 wins, a last-place end within the division and a 22% likelihood of creating the postseason, in line with MLB.com. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA noticed a roughly .500 workforce. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projected standings have been harsher: 74 wins, final within the AL East and a 1.0% likelihood of successful the division. The workforce was coming off two dropping seasons. It had new homeowners and a closely reshuffled roster.

Now the Rays are 96-61 and AL East champions. They clinched with a 6-1 win at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night time. That’s already 22 extra wins than ZiPS projected, with video games nonetheless left to play.

Here’s how they obtained from one level to the opposite, a lot of it in their very own phrases.

The longest odds

Four groups have received division titles thus far this season. Only one in all them was supposed to complete final.

The Dodgers received the NL West for a fifth straight 12 months. They’re the two-time defending World Series champions, and ZiPS gave them a 71.8% likelihood to win the division earlier than the season. The Brewers received their fourth straight NL Central title, beating their 85-win ZiPS projection. The Braves got here again from a 76-86 season in 2025 to win the NL East, however they have been projected third and have now received the division seven occasions in 9 years.

The Rays began from a really totally different place. ZiPS gave them a 1-in-100 likelihood in a division the place it projected 4 different groups to win not less than 88 video games, with Boston projected for essentially the most wins. So far, they’ve overwhelmed their projection by 22 wins. The Brewers are subsequent at 13, the Braves are at 8, and the Dodgers are about the place they have been anticipated to be.

For the opposite three champions, this September confirmed what was anticipated or restored what had been misplaced. The Rays received one thing no one outdoors the workforce had them successful.

February: “Shock some people”

The first public signal of confidence got here from a pitcher, not a star. As spring exercises started, right-hander Ryan Pepiot informed MLB.com the decrease expectations might work within the workforce’s favor: “We can really go out there and just kind of shock some people.”

Manager Kevin Cash was extra cautious. “There’s a lot to be excited about,” he mentioned. “We’ve got to get on the field and do it.”

According to the gamers, the personal conversations have been bolder. After Tuesday’s clinch, All-Star Junior Caminero informed the Tampa Bay Times what he mentioned to teammates on his first day of camp: “We have to play in October this year.” Baseball operations president Erik Neander, the Times reported, informed the workforce earlier than the season opener in St. Louis that it was higher than outsiders anticipated.

Both of these accounts got here out after the clinch, not in February. AP’s model of Caminero’s phrases is totally different. It has him realizing “we’ve got a playoff team.” Winning groups have a tendency to recollect their early confidence clearly. That does not make it unfaithful, however solely Pepiot’s phrases have been on file on the time.

Spring and summer time: The sluggish begin

The season did not begin easily. The Rays misplaced on Opening Day in St. Louis. “We got off to a little bit of a slow start in April,” Drew Rasmussen informed AP on Tuesday, “but to play as we have since the beginning of May, this group’s different.”

From there, the Rays went from lengthy shot to contender. Rasmussen grew to become the rotation’s anchor, going 16-5. The workforce has received every of his 12 begins for the reason that All-Star break, a franchise file.

Sept. 11: “The job’s not finished”

On a Friday night time at Tropicana Field, Caminero hit a two-run walk-off homer to beat Houston 3-1. That made the Rays the primary MLB workforce to clinch a playoff spot. “You couldn’t write it any better,” Neander informed MLB.com.

It was the sort of night time that would have felt just like the end line. For a franchise that had missed October two years in a row, it almost was. Instead, Yandy Diaz, who celebrated within the clubhouse with a tomahawk steak, regarded forward. “Look, the job’s not finished,” he informed reporters afterward, in line with the New York Post. “We still have a big title in mind with winning the division.”

At the time, the Rays led the Yankees by three video games.

Sept. 22: Champagne within the Bronx

Eleven days later, Diaz was soaked in champagne at Yankee Stadium. The Rays had misplaced the primary sport of Tuesday’s doubleheader 2-0. Then Rasmussen held New York hitless by means of six innings of the nightcap, and Diaz broke an 0-for-26 stoop with two two-run singles.

“I don’t think there’s anything more special as a Tampa Bay Ray than to celebrate here in Yankee Stadium,” Diaz informed the Times. To AP, he related it again to the beginning: “With this group we knew that from the beginning, but we still believed in ourselves every single way.”

Neander, who had addressed the workforce earlier than the opener in St. Louis, stored it easy. “Just an unbelievable year,” he informed the Times.

What comes subsequent

The Rays aren’t treating the division as the top.

“We know this isn’t the finish line,” Rasmussen informed the Times, and he repeated it in a postgame interview with Lauren Shehadi.

The Rays open the Division Series at dwelling on Oct. 3 with a first-round bye. They’ll doubtless face the Yankees or Red Sox, two of the groups picked to complete forward of them earlier than the season.